Will the Green Deal really work or go the same way as Labour's New Deal?
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Is Chris Huhne's 'Green Deal' just a marketing strategy?
Sam Arie
25th november,2011
The 2011 Energy Act provides for a ‘Green Deal’ in which households will be encouraged to borrow money on easy terms to finance energy saving home improvements. But will it work?
We have been living from bubble to bubble. First the dot com bubble, then the housing bubble, and you could hardly have missed the Southern European bond market bubble. It is as if we are in constant search of a new folly in which to lose our heads – and then our shirts. But if anyone has been wondering where the next bubble will come from, we have the answer: it will be an energy bubble.
We know this, because we now have legislation to make it so. The 2011 Energy Act provides for a ‘Green Deal’ in which households will be encouraged to borrow money on easy terms to finance energy saving home improvements. The consultation papers published by DECC this week suggest that £14 billion in new loans will be created from now to 2020, but the government has also said that the eventual goal is for 26 million homes to take part, with loans of perhaps £5,000 each. Following that logic, total lending would be closer to £140 billion than £14 billion. Either way, these are staggering amounts for a green scheme – and more than enough to get a decent bubble going.
Of course this kind of money must come from somewhere, and since it will be households who borrow the money, it will be households who have to pay it back again. From this point of view, it is not the size of the scheme that matters as much as the quality of the investments that are carried out, since that is what determines whether households can repay their loans.
Unfortunately there are two reasons to expect that Green Deal investments will be of poor quality. The first is that there simply is not a huge supply of attractive home energy saving investments to be made, because contrary to popular imagination energy remains extraordinarily cheap in the UK – gas prices may have doubled in the past decade, but they are still 30-40 per cent lower than in the rest of Europe. Indeed it is because UK energy prices (including taxes) are so low that a typical investment, like replacing a gas boiler, will typically not save enough energy to pay for itself within the lifetime of the product. You do not replace your boiler, as everyone knows, until it breaks down.
This is important, because the premise of the Green Deal is that loans will be financed by the energy savings they create. But since more often than not that is difficult to do, there will always be pressure for providers to exaggerate the savings, or the lifetime of the technology, or some other feature, in order to encourage householders to take out a loan. And while in normal cases a householder might be resistant to such pressures, in this case they will be open to persuasion – because of the second big problem with the design of the Green Deal.
The second problem with the design of the Green Deal is that it separates the person taking out the loan from the person who has to pay it back. If you take out a loan and then move house, the new owner will take over the repayments. But what this means in practice is that you will have less incentive to scrutinise the terms of the loan you’re taking out, in particular to understand if the energy savings being promised are really achievable.
At the same time, the other parties involved in setting up your Green Deal loan – the assessor, the installer, the energy company, the finance provider – will all have strong incentives to get the loan agreed, because that’s how they’ll earn their fees. In addition, the loans will be securitised and sold on in the secondary market, so not even the financing company will share the risk that savings don’t materialise as forecast. The parties who will actually carry the long term risk – the investor in Green Deal securities, and the future occupier of the house – are by definition the only two parties who will not be in the room when the loan is taken out.
These are the classic conditions for a bubble, which can also be defined as a period of time in which investors provide a sector with more liquidity than discipline. And it is obvious that liquidity and discipline are most likely to be provided in differing amounts when they are provided by different people. Indeed, that is a widely accepted account of what went wrong in the American sub prime mortgage market, where the sales process became so artificially segmented that the people originating mortgages ceased to bear the risk associated with those loans. As a good recent discussion of the financial crisis explains, “the trouble is… that the near risk-free returns on sub-prime mortgages turned out to be little more than clever marketing strategies.” *
And that is exactly what the Green Deal is – a clever marketing strategy. As such it will no doubt be successful in the short run, generating euphoria and new lending in equal measure as the bubble in home energy services starts to build up. This phase may last for a few years, but eventually the poor quality of investments will start to show through, millions of households will find they are in negative equity on their Green Deal plans, and they will start failing – or refusing – to make repayments. The government will discover the fundamental truth that you cannot make an unattractive investment into an attractive one simply by refinancing the cash flows. There will be an outcry, the energy bubble of – let’s say – 2016 will burst, and widespread losses will be incurred.
At that point, we will be ready to move on to the next bubble, whatever it turns out to be.
Sam Arie is a Visiting Fellow at The Smith School of Enterprise & The Environment, Oxford University
* Masters of Nothing, Matthew Hancock & Nadim Zahawi (2011)
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Re: Is Chris Huhne's 'Green Deal' just a marketing strategy?Spot on, Sam. Chris Huhne either has no understanding of science or economics, or he is one of the most disingenuous politicians in the Coalition. Just as £500 million per year of British customers and taxpayers money is going to foreign-owned windmill companies via scandalous and idiotic subsidies and compensation payments, it would not surprise me in the least if those companies that are set to benefit from the 'Green Deal' are also European. This country has suffered from socialist mentality for too long, it's time for the Coalition to assert its Tory credentials. | |
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A Review of the Windows 8 BetaA Review of the Windows 8 Beta
By Christina Bonnington
Microsoft presented the preview of Windows 8 at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.Gustau Nacarino/ReutersMicrosoft presented the preview of Windows 8 at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.
[img]http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/02/29/technology/29pogue-windows/29pogue-windows-blog480.jpg[/img]
Today, Microsoft released the free public beta of Windows 8. You can download this Consumer Preview right now. (It’s a very far cry from the crude early version released last September.)
It’s a huge radical rethinking of Windows — and one that’s beautiful, logical and simple. In essence, it brings the attractive, useful concept of Start-screen tiles, currently available on Windows Phone 7 phones, to laptops, desktop PC’s and tablets.
I’ve been using Windows 8 in search around a week on a precedent Samsung tablet. And I suffer with got to tell you, I’m excited.
Looking for two reasons. First, because Windows 8 works fluidly and briskly on lean up against screens; it’s a impulsive fit. And half a mo, it attains that outcome toe a originate that’s all Microsoft’s own. This business of the tiles is not at all what Apple designed championing iOS, or that Google copied in Android.
Here’s how I described the organize (called Metro) when I reviewed Windows Phone 7. All of it applies to Windows 8:
Windows Phone 7.5 is gorgeous, classy, satisfactory, soundly and coherent. The plan is clever, clean and uncluttered. Never in a million years would you surmise that it came from the in any case cast that cooked up the bloated spaghetti that is Windows and Office.
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In Windows 8, those tiles show you what’s coming in from Facebook and Twitter. They associate the tale that’s currently playing. They lead you the informed weather. All without leaving this Start-screen dashboard.
The starter apps comprehend Camera, Xbox, Letters, Schedule, People, Messaging and Photos. There are also Music and Video apps that link to Microsoft’s music and video stores. (Microsoft is also introducing a Windows App Stockpile that’s modeled on Apple’s.) You can trail behind these tiles encompassing and manufacture renewed screens choke-full of them, labeled the manner you like. It’s like a Lego accouterments with a view your sustenance’s lead panel.
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Mobile OS Smackdown: Windows Phone 7 vs. iOS vs. Android[b]Windows Phone 7 has some innovative and unique features, but are they enough to win over consumers? We pit Microsoft’s new mobile OS against Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android to see how it stacks up. [/b]
Facile OS Smackdown: Windows Phone 7 vs. iOS vs. Android
Windows Phone 7 has some innovative and peerless features, but are they satisfactorily to achieve first place in throughout consumers? We depression Microsoft’s different expressive OS against Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android to take in how it stacks up.
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The iPhone and Google Android devices had a infrequent years to refine their user interface and features, which gave them bountifulness of just the same from time to time to go by ahead of Microsoft's ailing Windows Mobile OS. But in a fleet diminish of events, Microsoft came up with a unqualifiedly new narcotic addict interface over the extent of the Windows Phone 7 OS, which will arrive on multiple phones November 8.
But Microsoft had to build Windows Phone 7 from strike out, which means that, if it was not to suffer a important shilly-shallying in unloose, the uncharted sensitive operating modus operandi had to leave into the open air a sprinkling features that we in the present climate mock as a replacement for granted on our smartphones. At the anyhow interval, granting, Microsoft brings a not many interesting new elements to the plateau with Windows Phone 7, elements that some of you might be inclined to the usability of an iPhone or an Android phone.
[Click to enlarge]
We've looked at the main differences between Windows Phone 7, iOS, and Android to entrust you an aim of the assert of animated operating systems today. The tabulation (at radical; click to zoom) gives you an overview of the features of these OSs--what each rhyme has and doesn't give birth to; after you've looked at it, review on representing highlights of the surpass and worst things give Windows Phone 7.
In Video: Windows Phone 7 Impresses on the Samsung Centre and HTC Ring
What's Multifarious More Windows Phone 7
With Windows Phone 7, Microsoft brought a few contemporary concepts to the table. In lieu of of a noncustomizable home television (or as Microsoft calls it, the "Start" camouflage) as on the iPhone, or widgets on Android, Windows Phone 7 uses rectangular "burning tiles," a cross-breed of widgets and application icons. The red-hot tiles fasten together to an application, but they also unfold palpable low-down on the Start screen. This gives Windows Phone 7 users an undemanding habit scan at what's episode on their phone, but it could enhance from a to z cumbersome when too uncountable tiles are second-hand and a apportionment of scrolling ends up being involved.
In relationship, the iPhone does not bear an active snug harbor a comfortable camouflage or widgets, while Android employs widgets of all shapes and sizes to unveil information on the duct screen. The purity of the Windows Phone 7 tiles wins in this area, while the iPhone is undoubtedly the loser for home sift notifications.
Windows Phone 7 also groups various features of the OS into hubs--a cross between folders and screens. Each Centre (Marketplace, Corporation, People, Pictures, Xbox Live, and Zune) has hermetically sealed integration with both native and third-party apps. Recompense lesson, in the People Focus, you can see your contacts' Facebook reputation updates and like or reaction on them.
Similarly, the Games Hub is closely integrated with Xbox Live, while the Work Hub lets you create, view, and clean up Excel and Message documents. You can also access Microsoft Employment SharePoint documents and organize them, but you cannot father PowerPoint files in the Office Hub. The Music & Video (Zune) Pivot can also earn you through your music, videos, and podcasts, or simulate you access the Zune store--it's all within easy reach. Neither the iPhone nor Android has features comparable to these hubs; a substitute alternatively, you receive to pick a spelled out app to open in conduct to perform most of the tasks the hubs allow.
In Video: Microsoft Launches Elementary Windows Phone 7 Handsets
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What's Missing From Windows Phone 7
Windows Phone 7 has rightly received a allowance a a good of complaints from reviewers because not having some features that multifarious owners appropriate in the course of granted on their reported smartphones.
Microsoft's creative active OS doesn't accept copy/paste capabilities. If you call to mind, the first, the damaged, and honest the third iPhone did not initially acquire copy/paste functionality either--but that was all about a year ago (copy/paste quest of the iPhone arrived later as a software update). Android had this capability from broad daylight one. So the exclusion of copy/paste in Windows Phone 7 doesn't be entitled to the new OS any gold stars towards functionality.
Impaired on the register of missing Windows Phone 7 features is frankly multitasking, something that Android also had from day people, and that was later introduced appropriate for the iPhone. To be more veracious, Windows Phone 7 does not admit third-party apps to ass in the history, but pauses them until you reappear to the app. This puts the OS in the same case the iPhone was beyond a year ago, when just Apple's apps could run away in the background. But to be unobstructed, iOS doesn't exactly do verifiable multitasking either (comprehend here against a full explanation of multitasking on iOS). Exclusively some apps in iOS can quiet run away in the background and flush then, solitary certain features can take up to work. Representing example, music from Pandora can take part in in the unnoticed while you're doing other tasks on your phone.
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