Building on existing cooperation to protect the fragile Arctic environment and its wildlife could be the key to forestalling a new Cold War over Arctic resources. Photo: Walrus, by Colin Jagoe via Flickr.
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Arctic chill, red hot politics - as the ice melts, a new Cold War can still be avoided
25th November 2014
As the Arctic ice retreats, a fragile but resource-rich landscape replete with oil, minerals, fish and islands is opening up, writes Conn Hallinan. A new land-rush is on, and it could all lead to war. But it can be avoided provided states respect the rule of law and build on existing regimes of cooperation to protect the precious Arctic environment.
China may be a thousand miles from the nearest ice floe, but as the second largest economy in the world, it has no intention of being left out in the cold.
One hundred sixty eight years ago this past July, two British warships - HMS Erebus and HMS Terror - sailed north into Baffin Bay, bound on a mission to navigate the fabled Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans.
It would be the last that the 19th century world would see of Sir John Franklin and his 128 crewmembers.
But the Arctic that swallowed the 1845 Franklin expedition is disappearing, its vast ice sheets thinning, its frozen straits thawing.
And once again, ships are headed north, not on voyages of discovery - the northern passages across Canada and Russia are well known today - but to stake a claim in the globe's last great race for resources and trade routes.
How that contest plays out has much to do with the flawed legacies of World War II, which may go a long way toward determining whether the arctic will become a theater of cooperation or yet another dangerous friction point.
In the words of former NATO commander US Admiral James G. Stavridis, an "icy slope toward a zone of competition, or worse, a zone of conflict."
There is a great deal at stake
The US Geological Survey estimates that the Arctic holds 13% of the world's oil reserves and 30% of its natural gas. There are also significant coal and iron ore deposits.
As the ice retreats, new fishing zones are opening up, and, most importantly, shipping routes that trim thousands of miles off of voyages, saving enormous amounts of time and money. Expanding trade will stimulate shipbuilding, the opening of new ports, and economic growth, especially in East Asia.
Traffic in the Northern Sea Route across Russia - formerly known as the Northeast Passage and the easiest to traverse - is still modest but on the uptick.
The route has seen an increase in shipping, from four vessels in 2010 to 71 in 2013, and, for the first time in history, a Liquid Natural Gas Tanker, the, made the trip. On a run from Hammerfest Ob River, Norway, to Tobata, Japan, the ship took only nine days to traverse the passage, cutting almost half the distance off the normal route through the Suez Canal.
Which is not to say that the Northern Sea Passage is a stroll in the garden. The Arctic may be retreating, but it is still a dangerous and stormy place, not far removed from the conditions that killed Franklin and his men.
A lack of detailed maps is an ongoing problem, and most ships require the help of expensive icebreakers. But for the first time, specially reinforced tankers are making the run on their own.
An undignified scamble for Arctic resources
Tensions in the region arise from two sources: squabbles among the border states - Norway, Russia, the US, Canada, Denmark (representing Greenland), Finland, Iceland, and Sweden - over who owns what, and efforts by non-polar countries - China, India, the European Union and Japan - that want access.
The conflicts range from serious to somewhat silly. In the latter category was the 2007 planting of a small Russian flag on the sea-bed beneath the North Pole by private explorer Artur Chillingarov, a stunt that even the Moscow government dismissed as theatrics.
But the Russians do lay claim to a vast section of the North Pole, based on their interpretation of the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Seas that allows countries to claim ownership if an area is part of a country's continental shelf.
Moscow argues that the huge Lemonosov Ridge, which divides the Arctic Ocean into two basins and runs under the Pole, originates in Russia. Canada and Denmark also claim the ridge as well.
Canada's organized an expedition this past summer to find out what really happened to Franklin and his two ships. The search was a success - one of the ships was found in Victoria Straits - but the goal was political not archaeological: Ottawa is using the find to lay claim to the Northwest Passage.
Copenhagen and Ottawa are at loggerheads over Hans Island, located between Ellesmere Island and Greenland. The occupation of the tiny rock by the Canadian military has generated a 'Free Hans Island' campaign in Denmark.
The US has been trying to stake out terrain as well, though it is constrained by the fact that Washington has not signed the Law of the Seas Convention.
However, the US has locked horns with Ottawa over the Beaufort Sea, and the Pentagon released its first 'Arctic Strategy' study. The US maintains 27,000 military personnel in the region, not including regular patrols by nuclear submarines.
The Russians and Canadians have ramped up their military presence in the region, and Norway carried out yearly military exercises - 'Arctic Cold Response' - involving up to 16,000 troops, many of them NATO units.
But you don't have to be next to the ice to want to be a player. China may be a thousand miles from the nearest ice floe, but as the second largest economy in the world, it has no intention of being left out in the cold.
This past summer the Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon made the Northern Sea Passage run, and Beijing has elbowed its way into being a Permanent Observer on the Arctic Council.
The latter, formed in 1996, consists of the border states, plus the indigenous people that populate the vast frozen area. Japan and South Korea are also observers. And herein lies the problem.
'Manageable instability' justifies US military presence
Tensions are currently high in East and South Asia because of issues deliberately left unresolved by the 1952 Treaty of San Francisco that ended WW II.
As Canadian researcher Kimie Hara recently discovered, the US designed the Treaty to have a certain amount of "manageable instability" built into it by leaving certain territorial issues unresolved.
The tensions that those issues generate make it easier for the US to maintain a robust military presence in the region.
Thus, China and Japan are involved in a dangerous dispute over the uninhibited islands in the East China Sea - called the Diaoyu by China and the Senkaku by Japan - because the 1952 Treaty did not designate which country had sovereignty. If it came to a military confrontation, the US is bound by treaty to support Japan.
Similar tensions exist between South Korea and Japan over the Dokdo / Takeshima islands, between Japan and Russia over the Northern Territories / Southern Kuriles islands, and between China, Vietnam, and Taiwan over the Spratly and Paracel islands.
Brunei and Malaysa also have claims that overlap with China. Any ships traversing the East and South China seas on the way north will find themselves in the middle of several nasty territorial disputes.
In theory, the potential of the Arctic routes should pressure the various parties to reach an amicable resolution of their differences, but things are complicated these days.
Russia has indicated it would like to resolve the Northern Territories / Kuriles issue, and initial talks appeared to be making progress. But then in July, Tokyo joined Western sanctions against Russia over its annexation of the Crimea and the Ukraine crisis, and negotiations have gone into the freezer.
Moscow just signed off on a $400 billion oil and gas deal with Beijing and is looking to increase trade with China as a way to ease the impact of Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.
A 'solid basis for cooperation' - with goodwill, and a bit of give and take
At least for the present, China and Russia are allies and trade partners, and both would like to see a diminished role for the US in Asia. That wish, of course, runs counter to Washington's growing military footprint in the region, the so-called 'Asia pivot'.
The tensions have even generated some good old-fashioned paranoia. When a Chinese tycoon tried to buy land in northern Norway, one local newspaper claimed it was a plot, calling the entrepreneur "a straw man for the Chinese Communist Party."
The Arctic may be cold, but the politics surrounding it are pretty hot. At the same time, the international tools to resolve such disputes currently exist. A starting place is the Law of the Seas Convention and a commitment to put international law over national interests.
The Chinese have a good case for sovereignty over the Senkaku / Diaoyus, and Japan has solid grounds for reclaiming most of the Southern Kuriles. Korea would likely prevail in the Dokdo / Takeshima dispute, and China would have to back off some of its extravagant claims in the South China Sea.
For all the potential for conflict, there is a solid basis for cooperation in the Arctic. Russian and Norway have divided up the Barents Sea, and Russia, Norway, the US and Britain are cooperating on nuclear waste problems in the Kola Peninsula and Arkhangelsk. There are common environmental issues. The Arctic is a delicate place, easy to damage, slow to heal.
As Aqqaluk Lynge, chair of the indigenous Inuit Circumpolar Council says, "We do not want a return to the Cold War."
This article is republished from CounterPunch.
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